Coppa Italia
23.09.25 15:00
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Cagliari vs Frosinone Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 23/09/2025

As the football calendar rolls into late September, the Coppa Italia provides an intriguing mid-week encounter at the Unipol Domus. Fresh off promising starts to their respective league campaigns, Cagliari, currently navigating the challenging waters of Serie A, host a resurgent Frosinone, who are making waves in Serie B. This 2025-09-23T15:00:00 kickoff is more than just a cup tie; it’s a battle for momentum, pride, and a coveted spot in the next round of Italy’s prestigious knockout competition. With Cagliari looking to assert their top-flight dominance and Frosinone eager to prove their mettle against higher-tier opposition, what narratives will unfold on the Sardinian pitch?

Head-to-Head History

The historical rivalry between Cagliari and Frosinone, while not extensive, has certainly produced some memorable encounters. In their seven previous meetings across all competitions, the spoils have been evenly shared, with both sides securing two victories each, alongside three draws.

  • Total matches played: 7
  • Cagliari wins: 2
  • Frosinone wins: 2
  • Draws: 3

Looking at their most recent clashes, the results hint at an unpredictable fixture with a penchant for goals:

  • January 21, 2024 (Serie A): Frosinone 3-1 Cagliari
  • October 29, 2023 (Serie A): Cagliari 4-3 Frosinone
  • April 15, 2023 (Serie B): Cagliari 0-0 Frosinone
  • November 27, 2022 (Serie B): Frosinone 2-2 Cagliari
  • April 20, 2019 (Serie A): Cagliari 1-0 Frosinone

Notably, the 4-3 thriller in October 2023 and Frosinone’s 3-1 home win in January 2024 underscore the attacking capabilities of both sides, suggesting this upcoming cup tie could be another high-scoring affair.

Current Form & Team News

Cagliari

Under the guidance of manager Fabio Pisacane, Cagliari have enjoyed a strong start to their 2025-2026 Serie A campaign, currently sitting 7th in the league table with 7 points from four matches. Their overall form is rated as “Good” with two wins, one draw, and one loss in Serie A.

Their last five competitive matches paint a positive picture (W-D-L format from oldest to newest):

  • August 16, 2025: Cagliari 6-5 Entella (Coppa Italia)
  • August 24, 2025: Cagliari 1-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)
  • August 30, 2025: Napoli 1-0 Cagliari (Serie A)
  • September 13, 2025: Cagliari 2-0 Parma (Serie A)
  • September 19, 2025: Lecce 1-2 Cagliari (Serie A)

This impressive run includes two consecutive wins in Serie A and a high-scoring victory in the Coppa Italia. Cagliari’s home form in Serie A this season has yielded a win and a draw, and they boast a strong record in Coppa Italia home matches, winning nine of their last eleven in regular time. Striker Andrea Belotti has been among their early season goal scorers in Serie A.

Frosinone

Frosinone, recently relegated to Serie B, have shown excellent form in the early stages of their 2025-2026 season under manager Massimiliano Alvini. They sit 2nd in the Serie B table with 8 points, remaining unbeaten after four league matches (2 wins, 2 draws). Their form across all competitive matches is equally impressive (W-D-L format from oldest to newest):

  • August 17, 2025: Monza 0-1 Frosinone (Coppa Italia)
  • August 24, 2025: Frosinone 2-0 Avellino (Serie B)
  • August 30, 2025: Palermo 0-0 Frosinone (Serie B)
  • September 13, 2025: Padova 0-1 Frosinone (Serie B)
  • September 19, 2025: Frosinone 2-2 Sudtirol (Serie B)

This sequence shows Frosinone are unbeaten in their last five competitive fixtures, securing three wins and two draws. Crucially, they have kept four clean sheets in these five games, highlighting a robust defensive setup. Frosinone’s away form in Serie B has been very good, with one win and one draw. While specific injury news is unavailable for this future fixture, Frosinone will likely rely on their strong defensive unit and recent goal-scorers like Ghedjemis and Calo to challenge their Serie A opponents.

Tactical Preview

Cagliari, playing at home in the Unipol Domus, are expected to adopt a proactive approach, leveraging their Serie A quality and recent attacking prowess. Under Fabio Pisacane, they have demonstrated an ability to score goals, netting five in their opening four Serie A matches. Their tactical setup will likely aim to control possession and exploit Frosinone’s defense with quick transitions and wide play, especially given their historical home advantage in cup competitions. Midfield dominance will be key for Cagliari to dictate the tempo and supply their forwards.

Frosinone, on the other hand, will likely arrive with a well-drilled defensive strategy, a hallmark of their early Serie B success. Their impressive record of four clean sheets in five competitive matches this season suggests a team that is difficult to break down. Manager Massimiliano Alvini will probably set up his side to be compact, absorb pressure, and look to hit Cagliari on the counter-attack, utilizing any space left by the hosts. The midfield battle will be crucial, with Frosinone aiming to disrupt Cagliari’s rhythm and deny them clear-cut chances. Travel fatigue for Frosinone could be a minor factor, but their strong start to the season suggests high morale and physical conditioning. The Unipol Domus pitch conditions are expected to be excellent, favoring fluid play.

Editorial Prediction

This Coppa Italia fixture pits a confident Serie A side with home advantage against a defensively solid and unbeaten Serie B team. Cagliari’s recent form, including two consecutive league wins and a strong offensive output at home, makes them the favorites. Their higher league status and home crowd support at Unipol Domus further tip the scales in their favor. While Frosinone’s defensive resilience is commendable, playing away to a Serie A side in good form will be a significant test.

Betting odds reflect Cagliari as the likely winners, with bookmakers estimating a 61.7% probability of a home victory. Some experts even push this probability higher, towards 65-70%.

We predict a hard-fought match, but Cagliari’s attacking quality and home advantage should see them through.

Predicted Score: Cagliari 2-1 Frosinone

Expect Cagliari to find a way past Frosinone’s stubborn defense, though the visitors are likely to make it a competitive encounter. A goal from Cagliari’s in-form attacker, Andrea Belotti, seems probable. Given the history of goals in this fixture, both teams to score is a strong possibility.

OUR CHOICE

Cagliari vs Frosinone Over 1.3 at the odd of 1.30

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