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Port Vale vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 24/09/2025

As the Carabao Cup Third Round draws near, all eyes turn to Vale Park where a classic David vs. Goliath encounter is set to unfold. On Wednesday, September 24, 2025, Port Vale of League One will host Premier League giants Arsenal in a fixture brimming with intriguing narratives and the tantalizing possibility of a cup upset. This match marks the first time these two clubs have met this century, rekindling a history that dates back to 1894. For Port Vale, celebrating their 150th anniversary season, welcoming a storied club like Arsenal is a grand occasion, offering a chance to etch new memories into their club’s history. Can the Valiants, buoyed by recent form and a passionate home crowd, defy the odds and stage a memorable giant-killing? Or will Arsenal’s formidable depth and quality prove too much, as they seek to end a four-year trophy drought since their last FA Cup triumph in 2020?

Head-to-Head History

The historical meetings between Port Vale and Arsenal are infrequent, with only 22 competitive matches recorded between the two sides. The head-to-head record heavily favors the North London club, with Arsenal boasting 13 wins compared to Port Vale’s 4, and 5 matches ending in a draw.

  • Total Matches Played: 22
  • Port Vale Wins: 4
  • Draws: 5
  • Arsenal Wins: 13

The most recent encounters date back to the 1997-98 FA Cup Third Round, where Port Vale impressively held Arsène Wenger’s Arsenal to a goalless draw at Highbury. The subsequent replay at Vale Park also saw a tightly contested 1-1 draw, with Arsenal eventually progressing after a penalty shootout. Prior to that, the teams met in the 1926-27 FA Cup, where Arsenal also needed a replay to secure a 1-0 victory after an initial 2-2 draw. Notably, Port Vale has not defeated Arsenal since September 1901, a 1-0 triumph on home soil. Arsenal’s largest victory against the Valiants was a resounding 7-0 on Christmas Day in 1894.

Current Form & Team News

 

Port Vale:

Port Vale enters this challenging fixture with a mixed bag of recent results but a commendable mini-run in the league. Their last five matches across all competitions show a form of: W-W-L-W-L. They recently secured impressive back-to-back league victories, beating Exeter City 2-0 away and Mansfield Town 2-1 at home. These results have lifted them to 19th in League One, demonstrating a fighting spirit. The Valiants also upset Championship side Birmingham City in the previous round of the Carabao Cup, proving their cup credentials.

In terms of team news, Port Vale will be without Liam Gordon, Mitch Clark, and Kyle John, all ruled out due to injury. Key players like Devante Cole will be looked upon to provide an attacking spark.

Arsenal:

Arsenal comes into this cup tie off the back of a strong September run, despite a demanding schedule. Their recent form reads: W-L-W-W-D. After a 1-0 loss to Liverpool in late August, they responded with a dominant 5-0 win over Leeds United. In September, they secured a comfortable 3-0 victory against Nottingham Forest in the Premier League, followed by a professional 2-0 win away at Athletic Club in the Champions League. Their most recent fixture was a hard-fought 1-1 draw against Manchester City in the Premier League, where they equalized late through Gabriel Martinelli.

Mikel Arteta is expected to heavily rotate his squad for this Carabao Cup tie, given their busy Premier League schedule and a trip to Newcastle United looming at the weekend. Arsenal faces significant injury concerns with Gabriel Jesus, Kai Havertz, and Chukwunonso Madueke all ruled out with knee injuries. Captain Martin Ødegaard is also doubtful due to a shoulder injury. This could open doors for academy prospects, with Max Dowman potentially making his first senior start. Players like Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard, who have been among the goals recently, might feature or come off the bench.

Tactical Preview

Port Vale is expected to adopt a resilient approach, likely lining up in a 3-5-2 formation. Their strategy will likely focus on defensive solidity, attempting to frustrate Arsenal and exploit any counter-attacking opportunities. They will aim to make the most of set-pieces, which can often be a great equalizer against technically superior opposition.

Arsenal, even with a rotated side, is anticipated to maintain their characteristic possession-based, attacking football, possibly employing a 4-3-3 formation. The midfield battle will be crucial, with Arsenal’s young talents and fringe players keen to impress. The Gunners will look to dictate the tempo and break down Port Vale’s likely deep defensive block through quick passing and intelligent movement. Defensive weaknesses for Port Vale might be exploited by Arsenal’s pace on the wings and intricate passing in the final third.

Vale Park, a League One ground, might present a different playing surface than what Arsenal’s Premier League stars are accustomed to, potentially affecting their intricate passing game. Travel fatigue for Arsenal is a consideration, especially with a crucial league match just days later. Another interesting point is that VAR will not be in use for this match, as it’s only implemented in the EFL Cup if all remaining stadiums have VAR capabilities. Should the match end in a draw after 90 minutes, it will proceed directly to a penalty shootout, with no extra time played.

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