Dutch Eredivisie
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Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 27/09/2025

The Eredivisie lights up the Van Donge and De Roo Stadion this Saturday, September 27, 2025, as struggling SBV Excelsior host title-chasing PSV Eindhoven. The encounter, kicking off at 18:00 local time, pits a team fighting to pull away from the relegation zone against a formidable opponent aiming to solidify their position at the summit of Dutch football. Can Excelsior, buoyed by a recent victory, defy their historical struggles against the Eindhoven giants, or will PSV’s potent attack prove too much to handle?

Head-to-Head History: A Dominant Narrative

The historical record between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven paints a stark picture of dominance. In 25 direct matches played between the two clubs, Excelsior are yet to register a single victory, with PSV claiming 23 wins and two matches ending in a draw. This overwhelming superiority is further highlighted by PSV’s goal difference, having scored 81 goals to Excelsior’s 20 in these encounters.

Recent Meetings (Last 5):

  • January 14, 2025 (KNVB Cup): PSV 5 – 4 Excelsior
  • April 2, 2024 (Eredivisie): Excelsior 0 – 2 PSV
  • January 13, 2024 (Eredivisie): PSV 3 – 1 Excelsior
  • April 8, 2023 (Eredivisie): PSV 4 – 0 Excelsior
  • August 28, 2022 (Eredivisie): Excelsior 1 – 6 PSV

PSV has won all of the last six games against Excelsior, including a thrilling 5-4 KNVB Cup victory earlier this year that went into extra time after a 3-3 draw in regular play. These matches often produce goals, with 72% of their direct encounters seeing over 2.5 goals, and both teams finding the net in 59% of their meetings.

Current Form & Team News

Excelsior

Excelsior has endured a challenging start to the Eredivisie season, currently sitting 14th in the league table with six points from six matches (2 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses). Their recent form shows a mixed bag of results: W-L-W-L-L. They secured a commendable 2-1 away victory against FC Volendam in their last outing on September 20, 2025, with goals from Szymon Wlodarczyk and Lewis Schouten. However, this followed a 0-1 home defeat to Sparta Rotterdam on September 14. Key injuries continue to plague Ruben den Uil’s side, with goalkeeper Stijn van Gassel (groin injury), Lennard Hartjes (cruciate ligament tear), Mathijs Tielemans (undisclosed injury), and Lewis Schouten (hamstring injury) all sidelined. Arthur Zagré, however, is back in contention after serving a suspension. Standout players include Mike van Duinen, who has made an impact from the bench, and Gyan de Regt, who leads the team in big chances created.

PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven enters this match positioned 2nd in the Eredivisie standings with 13 points from six matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Despite their strong league position, Peter Bosz’s side has experienced a slight wobble in recent form, with their last five matches showing D-L-W-L-W. Their most recent league fixture ended in a 2-2 draw at home against Ajax on September 21, 2025, where Ismael Saibari and Yarek Gasiorowski found the net. This draw followed a 1-3 defeat to Union Saint-Gilloise in the Champions League. PSV’s attacking prowess remains undeniable, having scored 19 goals in six Eredivisie matches this season. However, they face significant injury concerns, with leading scorer Ruben van Bommel (three goals) likely out for the season due to a serious knee injury. Other key absentees include Myron Boadu (hamstring), Kilian Sildillia (unknown), Alassane Plea (knee, out for the calendar year), and Mauro Junior (ankle). Veteran Ivan Perisic, with five assists, and Joey Veerman, who has created 15 chances this season, will be crucial in filling the attacking void. Ricardo Pepi, with four goals, is also a key threat for PSV.

Tactical Preview

Expect PSV Eindhoven to dominate possession and push forward with their characteristic attacking flair, even without some key offensive players. Their strength lies in their ability to create numerous chances, with players like Ivan Perisic and Joey Veerman dictating play from midfield and wide areas. Excelsior, playing at home, will likely adopt a more cautious approach, aiming to absorb pressure and hit PSV on the counter-attack, a strategy they have employed in the past. The midfield battle will be crucial, as Excelsior will need to disrupt PSV’s rhythm to prevent their creative players from dictating the tempo. Excelsior’s defensive vulnerabilities (13 goals conceded in 6 matches) will be severely tested by PSV’s high-scoring offense. Conversely, PSV, despite their attacking might, have shown defensive frailties themselves, conceding 10 goals in 6 league games. The match at Van Donge and De Roo Stadion should be played under typical autumnal Dutch conditions, with no specific weather, travel fatigue, or pitch conditions expected to heavily influence the outcome beyond standard factors.

Editorial Prediction

Given the historical head-to-head record and the current league form, PSV Eindhoven are the overwhelming favorites to win this Eredivisie clash. Despite their recent minor wobble and significant injury list, PSV’s superior attacking quality and Excelsior’s defensive struggles are likely to dictate the outcome.

We predict a comfortable away victory for PSV Eindhoven. Their ability to consistently find the back of the net, even against a defensively minded Excelsior, should see them through. Excelsior might find a consolation goal due to PSV’s occasional defensive lapses, and the trend of both teams scoring in their previous meetings.

Expected Scoreline: Excelsior 1 – 3 PSV Eindhoven

Betting Odds (approximate): PSV win is heavily favored with odds around 1.20-1.29. Betting on ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ and ‘Both Teams to Score – Yes’ also appears to be a reasonable proposition, with odds around 1.69 for BTTS.

Goal Scorers: Expect goals from PSV’s attacking midfielders and forwards. Ricardo Pepi, Ismael Saibari, and Ivan Perisic are strong candidates to get on the scoresheet for PSV.

OUR CHOICE

PSV Eindhoven To Win at 1.40

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