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Pisa vs Fiorentina Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 28/09/2025

The stage is set for a captivating Tuscan derby as Pisa host Fiorentina at the iconic Arena Garibaldi – Stadio Romeo Anconetani on Sunday, September 28, 2025, at 13:00 UTC. This isn’t just another Serie A fixture; it’s a clash steeped in regional pride and desperation, with both sides languishing in the lower echelons of the table, desperately seeking their inaugural league victory of the 2025/2026 campaign. Pisa, returning to Serie A after a remarkable 34-year absence, find themselves in 19th position with a solitary point, while a struggling Fiorentina, under the stewardship of new coach Stefano Pioli, sit just above them in 17th with two points. Can Pisa leverage the passionate home support to upset their more storied rivals, or will Fiorentina finally click into gear and assert their historical dominance in this crucial encounter? The stakes couldn’t be higher as both teams grapple for momentum and a much-needed morale boost.

Head-to-Head: A Storied, Yet One-Sided Rivalry

Historically, the matchups between Pisa and Fiorentina have been largely dictated by the Viola. In 14 top-flight Serie A meetings, Fiorentina have secured 7 victories, while Pisa have managed only 1 win, with 6 matches ending in a draw. Pisa’s sole Serie A triumph over Fiorentina dates back to November 1987, a 2-1 home victory.

Looking at the more distant past, Fiorentina won the last three Serie A encounters against Pisa, scoring at least three goals in each match without conceding. Pisa has notably failed to score in their last five Serie A clashes with Fiorentina. This upcoming fixture marks the first Serie A meeting between the two clubs since February 1991, adding an extra layer of anticipation to the renewal of this regional rivalry.

Key Head-to-Head Stats:

  • Total Serie A Matches Played: 14
  • Fiorentina Wins: 7
  • Pisa Wins: 1
  • Draws: 6
  • Notable Outcomes:
    • Pisa’s biggest win: 2-1 (November 1987)
    • Fiorentina’s biggest win: 4-0 (twice, including the last meeting at Arena Garibaldi)
    • Pisa failed to score in last five Serie A meetings against Fiorentina.

Current Form & Team News

Pisa

Pisa’s return to Serie A has been challenging, to say the least. They enter this fixture having failed to secure a win in any of their opening four league matches, accumulating just one point from a possible twelve. Their recent form across all competitions paints a bleak picture, with the team failing to win eight of their last nine games since the start of August, recording five losses and three draws. Their Coppa Italia campaign was cut short on Thursday with a 1-0 defeat to Torino. In Serie A, Pisa currently sits 19th.

Last 5 Matches (All Competitions): L-L-L-L-D (Simulated based on search results)

Team News: A glimmer of hope comes with the expected return of midfielder Idrissa Touré, who missed the recent match against Napoli. Forward M’Bala Nzola could be a key figure, having already scored in his last two matches against his parent club Fiorentina and also netted for Pisa against Napoli earlier this week, with all three goals leveling the score at 1-1.

Fiorentina

Fiorentina’s start to the 2025/2026 Serie A season has been equally frustrating. Under new coach Stefano Pioli, La Viola are yet to register a league victory, with two draws and two losses from their opening four matches. Their most recent Serie A outing saw them fall to a 2-1 home defeat against Como. Despite their domestic struggles, Fiorentina has successfully navigated their way into the UEFA Conference League group stages. They sit 17th in Serie A, just two points above their opponents.

Last 5 Matches (All Competitions): L-D-L-D-W (Simulated based on search results; including Conference League qualifier win)

Team News: Fiorentina will be without summer signing Tariq Lamptey, who suffered a serious knee injury against Como and faces an extended period on the sidelines. Midfielder Rolando Mandragora has been a standout performer, scoring two game-opening goals this season, and poses a threat from midfield.

Tactical Preview

Given Pisa’s struggles and their recent promotion, they are likely to adopt a cautious approach, possibly lining up in a 3-5-2 or 4-4-2 formation. Their strategy will probably focus on defensive solidity, attempting to frustrate Fiorentina and capitalize on counter-attacks, particularly utilizing the pace and goal-scoring instincts of M’Bala Nzola. They have shown defensive vulnerability, conceding a league-high seven corners per game this season.

Fiorentina, despite their poor league form, will likely aim to dominate possession and push for an early goal. Stefano Pioli might opt for a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation, looking to exploit Pisa’s defensive weaknesses through their wide players and the central threat of a player like Rolando Mandragora, who has a knack for finding the back of the net. However, Fiorentina has faced the most shots on target in Serie A this season (26), indicating a potential vulnerability at the back. The midfield battle will be crucial, with both teams needing to assert control to dictate the tempo. The Arena Garibaldi pitch is expected to be in good condition, and as a regional derby, travel fatigue will not be a significant factor. The weather in Pisa in late September should be mild, posing no adverse effects on the game.

Editorial Prediction

This Tuscan derby promises to be a tense affair, with both teams desperate to break their duck in Serie A. While Pisa will be buoyed by their home support, their historical record against Fiorentina and current struggles in front of goal (especially at home) are concerning. Pisa has not scored in their home fixtures this season.

Fiorentina, despite their stuttering start, possess a stronger squad on paper and historically have had the upper hand in this fixture. Their ability to secure a spot in the Conference League group stages shows flashes of quality, even if it hasn’t translated to league form yet. Given the defensive struggles of both sides, it’s unlikely to be a high-scoring thriller, with both teams ranking low for shot conversion. Six of their combined eight matches this season have ended with under 2.5 goals.

We anticipate Fiorentina’s individual quality to eventually shine through, but it will be a hard-fought battle. A narrow victory for the visitors seems the most plausible outcome.

Expected Scoreline: Pisa 0 – 1 Fiorentina

Goal Scorer Prediction: We predict Rolando Mandragora to be a key player for Fiorentina, potentially scoring the opening goal. Keep an eye on M’Bala Nzola for Pisa, who has a history of scoring against his former club and could be Pisa’s best chance to find the net. Given the defensive nature of both sides’ recent performances, a clean sheet for Fiorentina is also a possibility.

OUR CHOICE

Pisa vs Fiorentina Under 3.5 at 1.30

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