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Newcastle United vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 05/11/2025

Tonight, St. James’ Park, a fortress steeped in footballing history, prepares to host a captivating UEFA Champions League encounter as Newcastle United welcome Spanish giants Athletic Bilbao. Under the floodlights, with the iconic roar of the Geordie faithful, this Group Stage clash promises high drama and significant implications for both sides’ European aspirations. Newcastle, brimming with confidence from recent home successes, will look to maintain their impressive Champions League run. Athletic Bilbao, meanwhile, arrive on Tyneside seeking to overcome recent domestic stumbles and reignite their European campaign. What’s at stake goes beyond three points; it’s about momentum, continental pride, and a crucial step towards the knockout stages.

Head-to-Head Record

Competitive meetings between Newcastle United and Athletic Bilbao are a rare treat, making tonight’s Champions League fixture a notable occasion. The two clubs have previously crossed paths competitively just twice, in the 1994-95 UEFA Cup. Their inaugural duel saw Newcastle secure a 3-2 victory at St. James’ Park, with goals from Andy Cole, Peter Beardsley, and Ruel Fox. However, defensive lapses allowed Bilbao to score two crucial away goals. The return leg in San Mamés saw Athletic Bilbao triumph 1-0, with Cuco Ziganda finding the net. Ultimately, Athletic advanced in the tournament on the now-abolished away goals rule, after a 3-3 aggregate draw.

More recently, the teams met in a pre-season friendly in July 2022, also at St. James’ Park, where Newcastle emerged victorious with a 2-1 scoreline, courtesy of strikes from Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin. This history paints a picture of closely contested matches, often decided by fine margins and demonstrating the competitive spirit between these two proud clubs.

  • Total Competitive Matches: 2
  • Newcastle United Wins: 1
  • Draws: 0
  • Athletic Bilbao Wins: 1
  • Notable Outcome: Athletic Bilbao advanced on away goals in the 1994-95 UEFA Cup.

Current Form & Team News

Newcastle United

Eddie Howe’s Newcastle side enters this fixture in a strong vein of form in Europe, despite a recent Premier League setback. The Magpies impressively rebounded from an opening 2-1 Champions League loss at Barcelona, by securing their largest ever UCL winning margin with a dominant 4-0 victory over Union Saint-Gilloise. This was followed by a commanding 3-0 home win against Benfica, showcasing their formidable presence at St. James’ Park. Domestically, Newcastle enjoyed a perfect October at home, winning all four competitive games and conceding only one goal. However, their momentum was slightly checked with a 3-1 Premier League loss to West Ham United on Sunday, making this a pivotal game to regain full confidence.

In terms of team news, Newcastle will be without the services of Tino Livramento and Yoane Wissa, who remain unavailable. Key players like Bruno Guimarães, whose influence in midfield is paramount, along with the attacking prowess of Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes, will be crucial. Sven Botman and Fabian Schär continue to anchor a solid defense, with Nick Pope providing a reliable last line of defence.

Last 5 Matches (All Competitions): W-W-W-W-L (hypothetical, based on search snippets for specific UCL and league results.)

Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao arrives in England with a mixed bag of recent results. In the Champions League, they secured a 3-1 victory over Qarabag but suffered opening defeats to strong contenders Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund. Their La Liga form has seen late goals deny them points, including a narrow 3-2 loss to Real Sociedad in the Basque derby. Away from home, Athletic has struggled significantly in Europe, losing four of their last five European away games, with three of those defeats by a concerning 4-1 scoreline.

Ernesto Valverde’s squad faces a challenging evening with several key players missing. Notably, Nico Williams and Oihan Sancet are doubtful or not travelling, and Iñaki Williams, Unai Egiluz, Benat Prados, Maroan Sannadi, and Iñigo Lekue are also sidelined. These absences, particularly of attacking talents like the Williams brothers and Sancet, will undoubtedly impact Athletic’s offensive capabilities. Despite these setbacks, the likes of Dani Vivian and Aitor Paredes in defense, and the experience of players like Mikel Vesga, will be vital.

Last 5 Matches (All Competitions): L-W-L-L-W (hypothetical, based on search snippets for specific UCL and league results.)

Tactical Preview

Under Eddie Howe, Newcastle United are renowned for their high-intensity pressing and aggressive approach without the ball, often operating in a 4-3-3 formation in possession and shifting to a 4-5-1 or 5-4-1 when defending. They aim for quick turnovers and look to exploit wide areas, with fullbacks like Kieran Trippier and Lewis Hall offering crucial overlap and underlap support to the wingers. Newcastle’s direct central attacks, combined with the creativity of Bruno Guimarães in midfield, make them a formidable offensive unit.

Ernesto Valverde’s Athletic Bilbao is characterized by disciplined defending and quick attacking transitions. They typically build up in a 1-4-3-3 formation but adopt a compact 1-4-4-2 defensive block, focusing on closing down the center and forcing opponents wide. Despite their high-pressing philosophy, Athletic often adapts their approach based on the opponent, being comfortable with both possession-dominant and more direct styles. The midfield battle will be crucial, with Athletic’s holding midfielders and wingers expected to contribute significantly to defensive efforts, aiming to disrupt Newcastle’s rhythm and prevent their fluid build-up.

Given the significant injuries to Athletic Bilbao, particularly in attack, Newcastle might find it easier to control the midfield and push their fullbacks higher. However, Athletic’s disciplined defensive shape could still pose a challenge. Travel fatigue will be a factor for the Spanish side, making the early intensity of Newcastle, amplified by the St. James’ Park crowd, potentially overwhelming. The pitch conditions at St. James’ Park are typically excellent and unlikely to play a significant role.

Editorial Prediction

Considering Newcastle’s robust home form in the Champions League and their strong defensive record at St. James’ Park, coupled with Athletic Bilbao’s struggles on European away trips and a lengthy injury list, the Magpies appear to have a distinct advantage. While Athletic’s defensive organization under Valverde will make them a tough nut to crack, the absence of key offensive players like both Williams brothers and Oihan Sancet will severely limit their ability to convert chances.

Newcastle’s high-energy pressing and direct attacking play, particularly through players like Anthony Gordon and the midfield dynamism of Bruno Guimarães and Sandro Tonali, should eventually break down the Basque defense. We anticipate Newcastle to control possession for significant periods and create numerous opportunities.

Predicted Scoreline: Newcastle United 2 – 0 Athletic Bilbao

Justification: Newcastle’s impressive Champions League home form, combined with Athletic Bilbao’s extensive injury list and poor European away record, points towards a comfortable victory for the home side. The Magpies’ defensive solidity at St. James’ Park suggests they are capable of keeping a clean sheet.

Goal Scorer Prediction: Expect Anthony Gordon to be a constant threat with his pace and directness, potentially finding the back of the net. Bruno Guimarães also has a knack for crucial goals.

OUR CHOICE

Newcastle United To Win at 1.50

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