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Italy vs Norway Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 16/11/2025

The Stadio Olimpico in Rome is set to host a captivating encounter as Italy faces Norway in a crucial World Cup 2026 qualifier on November 16, 2025, at 19:45 UTC. This match carries significant weight, especially for Norway, who are on the brink of securing qualification. For the Azzurri, while a direct top spot might seem distant, they will be eager to assert their dominance on home soil and potentially improve their standing in what promises to be a fiercely contested Group I. The narrative is further intensified by Norway’s surprising 3-0 victory over Italy earlier this year, setting the stage for a revenge match in the Eternal City.

Head-to-Head: A Renewed Rivalry

Historically, matches between Italy and Norway have often been tight affairs, though Italy has generally held the upper hand. The two nations have met on seven occasions since 1994. In those encounters, Italy has secured five victories, while Norway has managed two wins. There have been no draws recorded between the two sides in their most recent meetings.

Recent Encounters:

  • June 6, 2025: Norway 3 – 0 Italy (WC Qualification Europe)
  • October 13, 2015: Italy 2 – 1 Norway (Euro Qualification)
  • September 9, 2014: Norway 0 – 2 Italy (Euro Qualification)
  • June 4, 2005: Norway 0 – 0 Italy (WC Qualification Europe)
  • September 4, 2004: Italy 2 – 1 Norway (WC Qualification Europe)

The most recent fixture, a resounding 3-0 victory for Norway in June 2025, stands out as a significant shift in this rivalry and will undoubtedly be fresh in the minds of both squads.

Current Form & Team News

Italy

The Azzurri arrive in excellent form, having secured six successive victories since their defeat to Norway in June. In their last five matches, Italy has garnered a perfect 15 points, scoring an impressive 18 goals in the process. Their recent World Cup Qualifiers have seen dominant performances, including a 5-0 win against Estonia and a thrilling 5-4 victory over Israel. Under coach Luciano Spalletti, Italy has shown a potent attacking prowess coupled with their traditional defensive solidity. Key players like Mateo Retegui and Francesco Esposito could feature, with Spalletti potentially rotating the squad.

  • Last 5 Matches (W-D-L): W-W-W-W-W
  • Goals Scored: 18 goals in last 5 games

Norway

Norway has also been in sensational form, particularly in the World Cup Qualifiers, where they boast an unbeaten record with 9 wins and 1 draw, scoring 40 goals this season. They have won their last five matches in the WC Qualification Europe, proving to be an unbeatable force. Ståle Solbakken’s side is renowned for its free-scoring nature, bagging three goals or more in six of their recent games, including a remarkable 11-1 thrashing of Moldova. However, Norway faces a significant blow with star midfielder Martin Ødegaard confirmed as a notable injury absentee. Despite this, the likes of Erling Haaland will undoubtedly be the focal point of their attack.

  • Last 5 Matches (W-D-L): W-W-W-W-W
  • Goals Scored: Often scoring 3+ goals per game
  • Key Absence: Martin Ødegaard (injury)

Tactical Preview

Italy, playing at home at the Stadio Olimpico, is expected to maintain their possession-based style, utilizing their technically gifted midfielders to control the tempo. Under Spalletti, they often deploy a fluid system that allows their wide players and forwards to interchange, creating numerical advantages in attack. Expect Italy to press high and look to exploit any defensive vulnerabilities Norway might present, especially in wide areas. Their recent high-scoring games suggest an emphasis on offensive output.

Norway, under Ståle Solbakken, will likely adopt an attacking philosophy, aiming to leverage the immense goal-scoring ability of Erling Haaland. Despite the absence of Martin Ødegaard, who is crucial for linking midfield and attack, Norway will still pose a significant threat through direct play and Haaland’s predatory instincts. The midfield battle will be crucial, with Italy’s Nicolò Barella and Manuel Locatelli looking to stifle Norway’s attempts to feed their star striker. Norway’s defensive setup will be tested by Italy’s varied attacking patterns, especially given Italy’s strong home record. The cool November evening in Rome should provide ideal conditions for football, with no significant weather impact expected.

Editorial Prediction

This match pits two in-form teams against each other in a high-stakes encounter. While Norway has the psychological edge from their previous 3-0 victory, Italy’s home advantage and desire for revenge cannot be underestimated. The absence of Martin Ødegaard will undoubtedly impact Norway’s creative output, placing more pressure on Haaland. Italy, buoyed by their recent string of victories and playing in front of their home crowd, will be determined to clinch a win. Given Italy’s recent goal-scoring form and Norway’s attacking prowess despite Ødegaard’s absence, we anticipate an open game with goals.

Predicted Scoreline: Italy 2 – 1 Norway

Italy’s strong home form and their ability to score goals consistently should see them edge out a victory. While Norway will find the net, Italy’s resilience and tactical discipline are likely to secure them three points. Betting odds might favor Italy slightly due to their home advantage and recent form, though Norway’s strong campaign will keep the odds competitive. Expect both teams to score, and Erling Haaland is always a strong contender for a goal. For Italy, a forward like Mateo Retegui or Gianluca Scamacca could be among the goal-scorers.

OUR CHOICE

Italy vs Norway Over 1.5 at 1.25

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