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Ajax vs NAC Breda Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 27/09/2025

The Johan Cruijff ArenA is set to witness a compelling Eredivisie encounter this Saturday, September 27, 2025, as AFC Ajax welcomes NAC Breda. This fixture pits a confident Ajax side, boasting a perfect home record this season, against a NAC Breda outfit grappling with inconsistent form and persistent defensive vulnerabilities. As the Eredivisie campaign progresses, both teams arrive with distinct objectives: Ajax aims to maintain their unbeaten league start and solidify their position near the top of the table, while NAC Breda desperately seeks to steady their ship and climb away from the lower echelons. The historical dominance of the Amsterdam giants in this fixture adds another intriguing layer to what promises to be a battle of contrasting fortunes.

Head-to-Head: A History of Ajax Dominance

The historical record between these two clubs heavily favors Ajax. In 102 Eredivisie meetings, Ajax has secured a remarkable 76 victories, while NAC Breda has managed just 10 wins, with 16 matches ending in a draw. This pattern of dominance is particularly evident in matches played in Amsterdam, where Ajax is currently on an impressive run of 10 consecutive home victories against NAC Breda. NAC Breda’s last triumph at the Johan Cruijff ArenA dates back to December 2007.

Recent encounters further underscore Ajax’s superiority:

  • April 6, 2025: Ajax 3 – 1 NAC Breda
  • August 18, 2024: NAC Breda 2 – 1 Ajax (a rare win for Breda)
  • February 17, 2019: Ajax 5 – 0 NAC Breda
  • November 24, 2018: NAC Breda 0 – 3 Ajax
  • February 4, 2018: Ajax 3 – 1 NAC Breda

A notable trend in these clashes is the high number of goals, with 11 of their last 12 home matches seeing over 2.5 goals scored. Ajax has also netted at least three goals in five of their last six home meetings with NAC Breda.

Current Form & Team News

Ajax

Under coach John Heitinga, Ajax currently sits third in the Eredivisie table, having accumulated 12 points from six matches with three wins and three draws, maintaining an unbeaten league start. Their home form has been flawless, securing three wins from three matches at the Johan Cruijff ArenA this season, including a 2-0 victory over Telstar, another 2-0 against Heracles, and a 3-1 triumph over Zwolle. However, their away form has seen them draw all their matches, including a 1-1 stalemate with Volendam and 2-2 draws against Go Ahead Eagles and PSV. A recent 0-2 home loss to Inter Milan in the Champions League group stage provides a slight dent, but their domestic focus remains sharp.

In terms of team news, Ajax will be without Branco van den Boomen due to a back injury, with an expected return in early October 2025. Aaron Bouwman is sidelined with a minor knock, and Bertrand Traoré also misses out due to an unknown injury. Forward Kasper Dolberg is also unavailable, and Wout Weghorst remains questionable with physical discomfort. Despite these concerns, players like Kenneth Taylor, who scored and assisted in the recent draw against PSV, and Oscar Gloukh, who bagged his first Eredivisie goal, are in good form and ready to step up.

NAC Breda

NAC Breda’s start to the 2025/2026 Eredivisie season has been challenging, placing them 12th in the league with two wins and one draw from their first six games. Their overall form is described as “Poor” with two wins, one draw, and three losses in the Eredivisie this season. A significant concern for coach Carl Hoefkens’ side has been their defensive record, conceding in 17 consecutive league games, highlighting a persistent frailty at the back. Their away form has been particularly dismal, yielding just one point from their last three trips and conceding an average of 2.33 goals per match.

NAC Breda faces several injury concerns. Moussa Soumano (bruised knee), Charles-Andreas Brym (shoulder injury), and Terence Kongolo (muscle injury) are all sidelined. Brym and Kongolo are also listed as questionable. On a positive note, Sydney van Hooijdonk is expected to return from suspension, and Raul Paula, who recently scored as a substitute in a 2-2 draw against Twente, will be pushing for a starting role.

Tactical Preview

Ajax, playing at home, is expected to dictate the tempo and dominate possession. Under Heitinga, they typically employ an attacking philosophy, focusing on quick passing, wide play, and pressing high up the pitch. Despite some attacking absences, their ability to create chances, especially at home, remains potent. The midfield battle will be crucial, with Ajax’s creative midfielders looking to exploit spaces and supply their forwards.

NAC Breda, under Carl Hoefkens, will likely adopt a more cautious approach, aiming to absorb pressure and hit Ajax on the counter-attack. Their defensive organization will be paramount, particularly given their recent struggles in conceding goals. The return of Sydney van Hooijdonk could provide a much-needed focal point in attack, allowing them to pose a threat on the break. The effectiveness of NAC’s defensive unit against Ajax’s relentless attack will largely determine the outcome of the match.

Environmental factors such as weather and pitch conditions are unlikely to play a significant role at the Johan Cruijff ArenA. While Ajax had a Champions League fixture just ten days prior, ample recovery time suggests travel fatigue should not be a major concern for the home side.

Editorial Prediction

Given Ajax’s formidable home record, historical dominance over NAC Breda, and NAC’s ongoing defensive woes and poor away form, a comfortable victory for the home side seems highly probable. Ajax will be eager to maintain their perfect Eredivisie home run and put pressure on the league leaders. While NAC Breda might show flashes of resilience, especially with the potential return of key players, it’s unlikely to be enough to overcome the Amsterdam giants in their own stadium.

**Expected Scoreline:** Ajax 3 – 1 NAC Breda.

Ajax is expected to score multiple goals, following their trend of high-scoring home matches against NAC Breda. While both teams scoring isn’t a guaranteed outcome in this fixture historically (occurring only 40% of the time), NAC Breda’s recent habit of conceding suggests Ajax will find the net frequently. Expect one or two of Ajax’s in-form attackers to get on the scoresheet, with NAC Breda potentially grabbing a consolation goal.

OUR CHOICE

Ajax Win at 1.3

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