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Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 07/10/2025

The JD Cymru Premier serves up a captivating clash this Tuesday, October 7, 2025, as Caernarfon Town host the undisputed champions, The New Saints, at their fortress, The Oval. This fixture, always keenly anticipated, sees the traditional underdogs of Caernarfon welcome a TNS side that continues to dominate Welsh football. The question on everyone’s lips is whether the Canaries can finally clip the Saints’ wings on their home turf, or if TNS will extend their formidable record and continue their march towards yet another league title. With Caernarfon Town enjoying a solid start to the 2025/2026 season, and TNS already asserting their customary authority, this encounter promises both passion and tactical intrigue.

Head-to-Head

The historical rivalry between Caernarfon Town and The New Saints paints a clear picture of dominance by the latter. In 39 matches played since 2004, The New Saints have secured 34 victories, while Caernarfon Town have managed just 4 wins, with 1 draw completing the record.

Recent Results (Last 5 Meetings):

  • 11 March 2025: The New Saints 2 – 0 Caernarfon Town
  • 11 February 2025: Caernarfon Town 0 – 1 The New Saints
  • 26 December 2024: Caernarfon Town 2 – 5 The New Saints
  • 9 October 2024: The New Saints 1 – 2 Caernarfon Town
  • 5 April 2024: The New Saints 7 – 1 Caernarfon Town

These recent encounters further underscore TNS’s upper hand, with them winning four of the last five fixtures. The 9th October 2024 result, a 2-1 away victory for Caernarfon Town, stands out as a rare triumph for the Cofis against their formidable opponents.

Current Form & Team News

Caernarfon Town

Caernarfon Town has shown strong form at the start of the 2025/2026 Welsh Premier League season. They sit in 3rd place in the league standings with 20 points from 11 games (6 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses).

Their last 5 matches reflect a somewhat mixed bag, but with a recent loss: (L-W-D-L-W)

  • 04 October 2025: Colwyn Bay 1 – 0 Caernarfon Town
  • 28 September 2025: Caernarfon Town 0 – 3 Cardiff Metropolitan University
  • 23 September 2025: Connah’s Quay Nomads 1 – 2 Caernarfon Town
  • 20 September 2025: Caernarfon Town 1 – 2 Pen-y-Bont
  • 13 September 2025: Briton Ferry 2 – 5 Caernarfon Town

Adam Davies is reported as Caernarfon Town’s top scorer this season with 8 goals.

Team news suggests captain Danny Gosset was shown a straight red card in their recent match against Colwyn Bay, meaning he will be suspended for this fixture. Additionally, L. Smith (Midfielder) is out with an unknown injury, H. Godsmark-Ford (Defender) has a broken ankle, and J. Daniels (Defender) is recovering from ankle surgery.

The New Saints

The New Saints are once again leading the pack, occupying 1st place in the Welsh Premier League table with 26 points from 11 games (8 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). They have been in outstanding form, winning all of their last 6 Premier League matches.

Their last 5 matches show a strong winning streak (W-W-W-W-W):

  • 04 October 2025: The New Saints 4 – 0 Barry Town
  • 26 September 2025: Bala Town 0 – 2 The New Saints
  • 23 September 2025: The New Saints 4 – 2 Flint Town United
  • 19 September 2025: Cardiff Metropolitan University 1 – 3 The New Saints
  • 13 September 2025: The New Saints 6 – 0 Llanelli Town AFC

Specific injury and suspension news for TNS for this exact date is not readily available, but generally, their squad depth allows them to manage any minor issues. The Saints’ manager, Craig Harrison, will likely field a strong side to maintain their perfect run.

Tactical Preview

Caernarfon Town, playing at home at The Oval, will likely adopt a disciplined approach, aiming to contain TNS’s potent attack and exploit any counter-attacking opportunities. With the absence of their captain, Danny Gosset, in midfield, they might need to adjust their defensive solidity and creativity in the engine room. Given TNS’s quality, Caernarfon will need to be defensively resolute and clinical on the break.

The New Saints, under Craig Harrison, are renowned for their attacking, possession-based football. They will aim to control the midfield, circulate the ball swiftly, and utilize the wide areas to create scoring chances. Their ability to score freely, as evidenced by their 30 goals in 11 matches, will be a significant threat. The individual brilliance of their key attackers will be crucial in breaking down Caernarfon’s defense.

The weather in Caernarfon on October 7, 2025, is expected to be cool with a maximum daytime temperature of 16°C and a minimum of 9°C, and partly cloudy changing to sunny intervals by late morning. There’s a chance of light rain by early evening. This could lead to a slightly damp pitch, which might favor faster passing and potentially make defensive errors more common. While TNS are accustomed to diverse conditions, it could add an extra element of challenge, particularly for a free-flowing passing game.

Editorial Prediction

Despite Caernarfon Town’s respectable start to the season and home advantage, The New Saints’ dominant head-to-head record and current impeccable form make them strong favorites. While Caernarfon has shown they can occasionally surprise TNS, the champions’ attacking prowess and defensive solidity are difficult to overcome. The absence of Danny Gosset for Caernarfon will also be a significant blow to their midfield resilience.

Predicted Scoreline: Caernarfon Town 1 – 3 The New Saints

Justification: TNS’s consistent ability to find the back of the net, combined with their strong defense, points towards a comfortable victory. Caernarfon Town may find a consolation goal, perhaps through a set-piece or a quick counter, but TNS’s overall quality should shine through. The betting odds reflect this, with The New Saints generally favored at around 1.52 to 1.65 for a win, while a Caernarfon Town victory or a draw carries significantly higher odds.

Expect goals in this match, with an “Over 2.5 Goals” outcome being a strong possibility given TNS’s scoring record. It would not be surprising to see a goal from one of TNS’s key attacking players early in the game, setting the tone for their control over the match.

OUR CHOICE

Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints Over 2.5 at 1.40

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