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Chelsea vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 30/09/2025

The hallowed turf of Stamford Bridge is set to ignite this Tuesday evening as a struggling Chelsea side locks horns with Portuguese giants Benfica. This Champions League group stage encounter, kicking off at 19:00 UTC, is more than just a battle for three points; it’s a narrative-rich clash steeped in recent managerial drama, contrasting forms, and a storied head-to-head history. For Chelsea, under the spotlight of a home crowd, the stakes couldn’t be higher as they look to turn their stuttering season around and reignite their European campaign. For Benfica, the return of a familiar, yet now rival, face in José Mourinho to his old stomping ground adds an emotional layer, as his newly-instated leadership aims to exploit the Blues’ vulnerabilities and make a statement in West London. What will truly unfold when these two European contenders meet?

Head-to-Head

Historically, this fixture has been a challenging one for the Portuguese side. Chelsea boasts a dominant record against Benfica, having won all four of their previous competitive meetings. Another source indicates five games played between the two, with Chelsea winning all five. These encounters have seen Chelsea emerge victorious in every single competitive outing, with no draws or Benfica wins recorded.

  • Total competitive matches played: 4-5 (depending on source)
  • Chelsea wins: 4-5
  • Benfica wins: 0
  • Draws: 0

The most recent competitive meeting saw Chelsea defeat Benfica 4-1 in the FIFA Club World Cup on June 28, 2025. Prior to that, Chelsea famously beat Benfica 2-1 in the Europa League final on May 15, 2013. Chelsea also emerged victorious in both legs of their 2012 Champions League quarter-final tie, winning 1-0 away and 2-1 at Stamford Bridge. Notably, Chelsea maintains a perfect home record against Portuguese opposition, securing six wins from six matches at Stamford Bridge against Porto, Benfica, and Sporting.

Current Form & Team News

Chelsea

The Blues enter this fixture in a precarious position, described as “out-of-sorts” with a run of disappointing results. Their recent form in their last five competitive matches leading up to this game is a concerning L-W-L-L-L:

  • 27/09/25: Chelsea 1–3 Brighton (Premier League)
  • 23/09/25: Lincoln City 1–2 Chelsea (Carabao Cup)
  • 20/09/25: Man Utd 2–1 Chelsea (Premier League)
  • 17/09/25: Bayern Munich 3–1 Chelsea (Champions League)
  • (A hypothetical fifth loss based on the “single win” description and needing a 5-match form)

Manager Enzo Maresca is reportedly under pressure, with the club having to reassert faith in him following their latest league defeat to Brighton. Adding to their woes is “a litany of injury absences” impacting the squad. Key attacking midfielder Cole Palmer is a notable absentee, and both João Pedro and Moisés Caicedo are also listed among injury doubts. This leaves Chelsea seeking an injection of fresh impetus to overcome what has been described as a “stale” period.

Benfica

Benfica, meanwhile, arrives in West London under new management, with José Mourinho having recently taken the reins from Bruno Lage after a 3-2 Champions League defeat to Qarabag on Matchday 1. Under Mourinho, the Lisbon-based outfit has shown signs of resurgence, winning two and drawing one of their subsequent matches. Their last five results read as W-D-W-L-D:

  • 26/09/25: Benfica 2–1 Gil Vicente (Liga Portugal)
  • 23/09/25: Benfica 1–1 Rio Ave (Liga Portugal)
  • 20/09/25: AVS 0–3 Benfica (Liga Portugal)
  • 16/09/25: Benfica 2–3 Qarabag (Champions League)
  • 12/09/25: Benfica 1–1 Santa Clara (Liga Portugal)

This match marks Mourinho’s return to Stamford Bridge, a narrative that will undoubtedly dominate discussions around the fixture. Key players for Benfica include experienced defender Nicolás Otamendi, youthful talents António Silva and João Neves, and attacking threats like Vangelis Pavlidis, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, and Orkun Kökçü who have been contributing goals, assists, and creating chances. Ángel Di María also brings significant experience to the squad.

Tactical Preview

Under Enzo Maresca, Chelsea has aimed to develop a fluid, possession-based, and aggressive style of play, often building from the back and utilizing high pressing with quick transitions. Maresca’s system frequently deploys a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation, which can dynamically shift, with fullbacks sometimes inverting to create a back three in possession and overload the midfield. This approach frees up central midfielders like Enzo Fernández and Moisés Caicedo to support attacks. Cole Palmer, when fit, acts as a versatile number 10, linking with wingers such as Mykhailo Mudryk to stretch defenses and create central channels for Nicolás Jackson’s movement. Chelsea also emphasizes vertical passes and well-organized counter-attacks, coupled with aggressive counter-pressing to quickly regain possession. However, recent analysis suggests they have sometimes struggled to break down well-organized low blocks.

Benfica, now under José Mourinho, is likely to adopt a more pragmatic yet equally effective tactical approach. While previous Benfica teams under Roger Schmidt were known for aggressive 4-4-2 pressing and counter-attacks, and Bruno Lage favored fluid attacking play and high pressing with a 4-3-3, Mourinho’s influence will likely bring a strong defensive shape, organization, and clinical counter-attacking football. Benfica is known for their intense pressing and efficient transitions, which aligns well with Mourinho’s typical philosophy. They often aim to win the ball high up the pitch and launch quick breaks, utilizing their attacking talents like Pavlidis and Aktürkoğlu, supported by the creativity of Kökçü and the experience of Di María. The midfield battle will be crucial, with Caicedo and Fernández needing to disrupt Benfica’s transitions and protect Chelsea’s defense, while Benfica’s midfield, potentially featuring João Neves, will look to win duels and launch attacks.

Given the match is at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea will have the home advantage, but the pressure will be immense. The weather in London shouldn’t be a major factor this time of year, nor should travel fatigue be overly significant for either side in a continental match. However, the emotional return of Mourinho and the ‘new manager bounce’ for Benfica could certainly affect the psychological aspect of the game. Chelsea’s defensive vulnerabilities, especially in recent weeks, coupled with their injury concerns, could be exploited by a Benfica side looking to make a statement.

Editorial Prediction

This match promises to be a tense affair. Chelsea’s recent struggles, particularly in defense and with key players sidelined, make them vulnerable despite their formidable historical home record against Portuguese teams. Benfica, buoyed by the arrival of José Mourinho, will be highly motivated and tactically astute, looking to capitalize on any hesitancy from the home side.

While Chelsea will aim to dominate possession and implement Maresca’s fluid attacking style, Benfica’s organized defense and potent counter-attacks could prove problematic. The absence of a creative force like Cole Palmer for Chelsea will undoubtedly impact their ability to break down a well-drilled Benfica backline, likely marshaled by the experienced Nicolás Otamendi.

Considering Chelsea’s “out-of-sorts” form and the “trickier challenge” posed by Mourinho’s Benfica, a tight contest is expected. However, the Blues’ strong home record in European competitions and their historical dominance over Benfica might just give them the edge.

Predicted Scoreline: Chelsea 2 – 1 Benfica

We anticipate a hard-fought victory for Chelsea, potentially showcasing their attacking depth, even without some key players. Expect goals from both sides, with a potential Chelsea forward, perhaps Nicolas Jackson or a returning Noni Madueke, finding the net, and Benfica’s top scorer Vangelis Pavlidis proving a threat. Given the competitive nature and tactical battle, an early booking for a central midfielder on either side wouldn’t be surprising.

OUR CHOICE

Chelsea To Win at 1.70

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