Belgian Pro League
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Gent vs Charleroi Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 03/10/2025

As the Belgian Jupiler Pro League season intensifies, all eyes turn to the Planet Group Arena where KAA Gent will host Sporting Charleroi on October 3, 2025, at 18:45 UTC. This mid-season fixture promises a captivating encounter as both sides look to solidify their positions and push for European qualification. With Gent enjoying the home advantage and Charleroi often thriving on the road, this match carries significant weight for their respective ambitions. Will Gent’s tactical discipline and attacking prowess prevail, or can Charleroi’s counter-attacking threat and set-piece danger spring a surprise?

Head-to-Head History

The rivalry between KAA Gent and Sporting Charleroi has seen numerous memorable battles over the years. Across 68 total matches, Gent holds a slight edge with 31 victories compared to Charleroi’s 20, with 17 draws completing the picture.

  • Total Matches: 68
  • Gent Wins: 31
  • Charleroi Wins: 20
  • Draws: 17

Recent Encounters (Last 5 Meetings):

The last five meetings between these two clubs have been tightly contested, often featuring goals and drama. The most recent match on March 17, 2024, saw a dominant 5-0 victory for Gent at home. However, previous results indicate a more balanced affair:

  • 17/01/2025: Gent 1-1 Charleroi
  • 11/08/2024: Charleroi 1-0 Gent
  • 17/03/2024: Gent 5-0 Charleroi
  • 05/11/2023: Charleroi 1-3 Gent
  • 21/05/2022: Gent 1-2 Charleroi

Notably, these matches have often seen both teams finding the back of the net, with 67% of their last six head-to-head encounters resulting in both teams scoring. Historically, 57% of their 28 recorded meetings have seen both teams score, and 68% have had over 1.5 goals.

Current Form & Team News

KAA Gent

KAA Gent enters this fixture in relatively strong form, positioned at 5th in the Jupiler Pro League table with 14 points. Their overall season performance has been good, with 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses from 9 matches, winning 44% of their games. At home, Gent boasts a good record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss.

Last 5 Matches (All Competitions, leading up to October 2025):
  • 28/09/2025: Cercle Brugge 2-4 Gent (W)
  • 23/09/2025: Anderlecht 1-0 Gent (L)
  • 19/09/2025: Gent 3-0 FCV Dender EH (W)
  • 14/09/2025: Royal Antwerp 1-2 Gent (W)
  • 31/08/2025: Gent 1-1 Club Brugge (D)

Gent’s attacking trio, including players like Wilfried Kanga and Michal Skoras, have been prolific scorers this season. Their disciplined yet flexible formations and fluid transitions have been a hallmark of their play.

Team News (Gent):

As of early October 2025, Gent has a few players sidelined. Max Dean is out with a cruciate ligament tear. Other potential absences include Hyllarion Goore and S. Van Der Heyden, who were expected to return in early May 2025 and early June 2025 respectively. Noah Fadiga has been dealing with heart problems and his return is day-to-day.

Sporting Charleroi

Sporting Charleroi sits 8th in the league table with 12 points, exhibiting an average form overall with 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses from 9 matches. Their home form has been poor, but their away form is considered excellent, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss.

Last 5 Matches (All Competitions, leading up to October 2025):
  • 28/09/2025: Charleroi 0-2 Mechelen (L)
  • 20/09/2025: Charleroi 1-2 Zulte Waregem (L)
  • 17/09/2025: Genk 0-1 Charleroi (W)
  • 14/09/2025: Cercle Brugge 2-3 Charleroi (W)
  • 30/08/2025: Charleroi 3-1 Dender (W)

Charleroi’s recent results show a mixed bag, with two consecutive losses at home followed by three wins in previous matches. Their attacking play is direct, and they generate a significant number of corners, indicating pressure on the flanks.

Team News (Charleroi):

For Charleroi, key midfielder Yacine Titraoui’s status is unknown, with an expected return in early March. Goalkeeper Theo Defourny is doubtful due to a shoulder injury. Other players who had minor knocks or suspensions earlier in 2025, such as A. Flips, A. Bernier, and I. Mbenza, are expected to have returned by this date.

Tactical Preview

KAA Gent

Under Hein Vanhaezebrouck, KAA Gent typically employs a system with a back three, often a 3-4-1-2, which can morph into a 3-4-3 or 3-5-2. This formation allows for tactical flexibility, balancing attack and defense. Gent is known for its possession-based, attacking style, characterized by short, quick passes, fluid movement, and high pressing. They are also defensively organized, working as a unit to close spaces. Gent also tends to attack down the right and play with width, often attempting through balls and utilizing the offside trap.

Sporting Charleroi

Sporting Charleroi, under coach Rik De Mil, has shown a preference for a 3-4-2-1 setup, which allows their wing-backs to push high and create dangerous crosses. They are known for their directness in attack and a willingness to take long shots. While they can maintain neat play with good passing accuracy, they are also prone to turnovers under staunch pressing, and their aggressive play often leads to many corners. Their defensive stability through the middle can sometimes be compromised by their focus on wide attacks.

Key Battles & Influencing Factors

The midfield battle will be crucial, with Gent’s ability to control possession and Charleroi’s directness clashing. Gent’s disciplined defensive unit will need to be wary of Charleroi’s wing-back play and set-piece threat. Conversely, Charleroi’s defense will face a challenge in containing Gent’s fluid attacking trio and their preference for attacking down the right. Given the match is at Planet Group Arena, Gent will have the significant home advantage. The weather in Ghent in October typically features mild and pleasant conditions, with average temperatures around 19-20°C and infrequent rainfall, so pitch conditions should be good, and weather is unlikely to be a major factor.

Editorial Prediction

This match pits Gent’s home advantage and structured attacking play against Charleroi’s often effective away form and direct approach. Gent’s superior passing accuracy and settled attacking configuration give them a slight edge.

Charleroi’s recent defensive struggles, particularly their two consecutive home losses, suggest a vulnerability that Gent could exploit. However, Charleroi’s ability to win away matches and their significant corner count indicate they will pose a threat, especially on the counter and from set pieces.

Considering Gent’s strong home record and tactical discipline, they are expected to control the tempo of the game. While Charleroi will undoubtedly create chances, Gent’s overall quality should see them through. A close contest is anticipated, with both teams likely to find the net.

Expected Scoreline: Gent 2 – 1 Charleroi

Justification: Gent’s home form and tactical solidity, combined with Charleroi’s excellent away performance despite recent stumbles, suggest a narrow victory for the home side. Gent’s ability to dictate play and exploit wider areas should lead to goals. Charleroi, however, has proven capable of scoring, especially through set-pieces and quick transitions.

Betting Odds (Approximate – as of 2025-10-03): Gent to win is often favored, with odds around 2.09. Both Teams to Score (BTTS) is also a strong possibility, given the history between the two sides.

Goal Scorers/Events: Expect goals from Gent’s key attacking players. Given Charleroi’s tendency to rack up corners, a goal from a set-piece for the away side is a reasonable expectation.

OUR CHOICE

Gent vs Charleroi Over 1.5 at 1.25

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