EFL Cup
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Lincoln City vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 23/09/2025

The LNER Stadium in Lincoln is set to host a football spectacle steeped in history on Tuesday, September 23, 2025, as League One high-flyers Lincoln City welcome Premier League giants Chelsea for a mouth-watering EFL Cup third-round tie. This fixture marks an extraordinary occasion, being the first meeting between these two clubs in 114 years, igniting a classic ‘David versus Goliath’ narrative that has captivated the footballing world.

Lincoln City, enjoying a remarkable start to their season, find themselves riding a wave of confidence and an impressive ten-game unbeaten run across all competitions. They’ve proven their mettle with solid performances in League One, currently sitting third in the table, just two points off the summit. Their journey to the third round of the EFL Cup has been equally commendable, dispatching Harrogate Town and Burton Albion with professional displays.

In stark contrast, Chelsea arrive in Lincolnshire under a cloud of recent disappointment. The Blues have failed to secure a win in their last three outings, suffering consecutive defeats, including a bruising loss to Manchester United in the Premier League. This dip in form adds a layer of intrigue, raising critical questions: Can Lincoln City capitalize on Chelsea’s struggles and pull off a monumental upset, or will the Premier League elite rediscover their winning touch and assert their class on a challenging away day? The stakes are undeniably high for both sides, albeit for very different reasons, as they vie for a spot in the EFL Cup’s fourth round.

Head-to-Head: A Glimpse into Distant History

Encounters between Lincoln City and Chelsea are a true rarity, with their history stretching back to the early 20th century. In total, the two clubs have faced each other on eight occasions.

  • Total Matches Played: 8
  • Chelsea Wins: 5
  • Lincoln City Wins: 1
  • Draws: 2

The Blues have historically dominated this sparse matchup, securing five victories, with Lincoln City managing just one win and two draws. Lincoln’s sole victory against Chelsea came in a 1907 FA Cup replay at Stamford Bridge, a notable upset at the time. The most recent meeting between these two sides occurred in March 1911, ending in a goalless draw in Division Two, marking over a century since their last competitive clash.

Current Form & Team News

Lincoln City

Michael Skubala’s Lincoln City enters this encounter brimming with confidence. The Imps boast an impressive record of just one loss across all competitions this season, currently enjoying a formidable 10-game unbeaten streak. Their recent form in the league has been particularly strong, with four wins and three draws in their last seven fixtures, solidifying their third-place standing in League One. At home, the LNER Stadium has been a fortress, with Lincoln remaining unbeaten in six matches this season, securing four wins and two draws. Their recent 3-1 home victory over Luton Town underscores their attacking prowess and home advantage.

Team News: Lincoln City is expected to field a strong side, with no major new injury concerns reported. Key players, buoyed by their excellent form, will be eager to make an impact against Premier League opposition. The manager will likely stick with the core group that has delivered consistent results, aiming to leverage their collective momentum.

Chelsea

Chelsea’s form has taken a concerning dip in the build-up to this cup tie, with the club winless in their last three matches across all competitions. This includes consecutive defeats, notably against European heavyweight Bayern Munich and a 2-1 loss to Manchester United in the Premier League, where they played a significant portion of the game with ten men after Robert Sánchez’s early dismissal. This run has undoubtedly put pressure on manager Enzo Maresca to halt the slide and re-instill confidence.

Team News: Given their recent demanding schedule and the need to manage player fatigue, Chelsea is anticipated to make several changes to their starting XI. Robert Sánchez, having received a red card in their last Premier League outing, would be suspended for a league game, but his availability for the EFL Cup would depend on the competition rules and appeal outcomes. However, for the purpose of this prediction, we assume he could be unavailable or his place contested. Other key players might be rested, offering opportunities to fringe players and promising academy talents. However, Maresca will still need to field a side strong enough to navigate a tricky away fixture, especially considering their recent struggles and the desire to bounce back.

Tactical Preview

This match presents a classic tactical battle: Chelsea’s individual brilliance and technical superiority against Lincoln City’s disciplined organization and unwavering spirit. Lincoln City, under Michael Skubala, who has experience managing against Premier League opposition, is expected to adopt a resilient approach. They will likely set up in a compact 4-4-2 or 4-5-1 formation, aiming to deny Chelsea space in central areas and frustrate their creative midfielders. Their attacking threats will primarily come from quick transitions, set-pieces, and the enthusiastic home support urging them forward.

Chelsea, under Enzo Maresca, will undoubtedly dominate possession and dictate the tempo of the game. They are likely to deploy a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation, focusing on intricate passing patterns and exploiting width. The midfield battle will be crucial; Chelsea’s ability to break down Lincoln’s defensive lines through clever movement and incisive passes will be key. Defensive weaknesses for Chelsea could be exposed if they commit too many players forward and are caught on the counter, particularly if their rotated squad lacks immediate cohesion. The LNER Stadium’s vibrant atmosphere, combined with Lincoln’s strong home form, could add pressure on Chelsea’s potentially less experienced players, making for a challenging environment.

Editorial Prediction

While Lincoln City’s impressive form and the historical narrative promise a compelling contest, Chelsea’s undeniable quality, even with a rotated squad, should ultimately prevail. The Premier League side will be eager to arrest their recent slump and use this cup tie as a platform to regain momentum. However, Lincoln City will not make it easy, fighting for every ball and spurred on by a fervent home crowd.

Expect a hard-fought match where Lincoln City’s defensive organization keeps Chelsea at bay for periods, possibly even snatching an early lead or keeping the score tight until the latter stages. However, the depth of Chelsea’s squad and their superior individual talent, even from players who don’t regularly start in the Premier League, should eventually shine through.

Predicted Scoreline: Lincoln City 1 – 3 Chelsea

Justification: Chelsea’s need to bounce back, coupled with the inherent quality difference between the leagues, suggests a victory for the visitors. Lincoln’s resilience, particularly at home, points to them finding the net and making Chelsea work hard for their win. Betting odds would likely favor Chelsea heavily, but with better odds available for a Chelsea win with both teams scoring. We could anticipate a goal from a Chelsea forward looking to prove a point, and for Lincoln, a set-piece specialist or a clinical counter-attacking player could be on the scoresheet. Expect at least one moment of individual brilliance from Chelsea to break the deadlock or extend their lead.

OUR CHOICE

Lincoln City vs Chelsea Over 2.5 at the odd of 1.45

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