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Millwall vs Watford Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 22/09/2025

The Den, London – As the crisp autumn air settles over South East London, football fans eagerly anticipate a classic Championship encounter. On Monday, September 22, 2025, Millwall will host Watford in a fixture that promises grit, determination, and potentially, a crucial shift in the early-season Championship landscape. This clash isn’t just about three points; it’s a battle for momentum between two sides striving for consistency in a notoriously unforgiving league. With Millwall’s famed home advantage and Watford’s ongoing rejuvenation project, what tactical battles will define this encounter, and which team will emerge victorious from the cauldron of The Den?

Head-to-Head History

The rivalry between Millwall and Watford has seen numerous chapters written over the years, often characterized by closely contested affairs. In 25 competitive matches since 2003, Watford holds the historical edge with 13 victories, while Millwall has secured 7 wins, and 5 matches have ended in a draw. Across these encounters, Watford has outscored Millwall with 37 goals to 23.

Recent meetings, however, suggest a more balanced affair, with Millwall showing a stronger hand. The Lions have won 5 of their last 9 encounters against the Hornets, including three victories at home. The most recent results paint a picture of tight contests:

  • March 8, 2025: Watford 1 – 2 Millwall
  • August 10, 2024: Millwall 2 – 3 Watford
  • March 2, 2024: Millwall 1 – 0 Watford
  • October 28, 2023: Watford 2 – 2 Millwall
  • December 26, 2022: Watford 0 – 2 Millwall
  • October 19, 2022: Millwall 3 – 0 Watford

Notably, a single-goal margin has decided the last three clashes between these two teams, indicating their competitive nature. This history suggests that despite Watford’s overall historical advantage, Millwall has found a way to assert themselves in more recent times, especially at home.

Current Form & Team News

Millwall

Millwall enters this fixture sitting 13th in the Championship table with 7 points from their opening five matches of the 2025/2026 season. Their early season form has been a mixed bag, experiencing a strong start before a run of three games without a win across all competitions. Despite this, a recent 1-0 away victory against Sheffield United demonstrated their resilience, backed by a well-organised defensive display and an inspired performance from goalkeeper Steven Benda. They also drew 1-1 with Crystal Palace in the Carabao Cup, only to exit on penalties.

Under manager Alex Neil, Millwall has shown flexibility in their tactical approach, even deploying a five-at-the-back formation against Premier League opposition in the Carabao Cup. Defensively, they’ve been relatively solid, keeping clean sheets in 35% of their matches in the previous season. However, they’ve managed just one clean sheet in the league this season, and no Millwall player has scored more than one league goal to date, highlighting a potential struggle for consistent attacking output. The Lions are also grappling with a lengthy injury list, which could impact team selection. Attacker Sheldon Kendall has shown consistent shot volume but the team’s overall shot accuracy points to a need for more clinical finishing.

Watford

Watford arrives at The Den in 17th place, with 5 points from their first five Championship games. Under the guidance of Paulo Pezzolano, who took over in May 2025, Watford is undergoing a “rejuvenation project,” aiming for a young, energetic side that presses high and recovers the ball effectively. However, a consistent run of results has eluded them in their opening fixtures. Their last three league outings saw back-to-back 1-1 draws against Swansea and Southampton, followed by a narrow 0-1 home defeat to Blackburn Rovers. The Hornets have had a poor start to the season and are yet to secure an away win, which could be a concern for this trip to South London.

A key defensive concern for Watford is their inability to keep a clean sheet in the league this season. Goalkeeper Egil Selvik has been busy, making numerous saves in their recent league appearances. On the attacking front, Luca Kjerrumgaard has been a bright spot, netting two of Watford’s six league goals. Midfielder Imrân Louza is available for selection after serving a three-match ban, providing a boost to the squad, but Giorgi Chakvetadze (foot) and another player (knee) are definite absentees due to injury. Hector Kyprianou has been a combative presence in midfield, though he has already picked up two yellow cards this season.

Tactical Preview

This match is likely to be a fascinating tactical battle. Millwall, playing at their intimidating home ground, The Den, known for its intense atmosphere and strong home advantage, will look to leverage this environment. Alex Neil’s Millwall side has shown a willingness to adapt formations, recently using a five-at-the-back setup for defensive solidity. They typically aim to bring the attack to the opponent rather than sitting deep, a departure from some previous Millwall sides.

Watford under Pezzolano is expected to employ a high-pressing, energetic style. This could lead to a compelling midfield battle, with Watford attempting to disrupt Millwall’s build-up high up the pitch. Millwall’s ability to transition quickly and utilize their attacking threats, despite their current goal-scoring issues, will be crucial. Given Watford’s vulnerability to conceding and their lack of clean sheets, Millwall will likely try to exploit defensive weaknesses with direct play and set-pieces.

The match will be played on a Monday evening, and while travel fatigue might marginally affect Watford, the short distance within England should not be a major factor. The pitch conditions at The Den are generally well-maintained and unlikely to significantly influence the game’s outcome. The passionate home crowd, however, will undoubtedly play a part, creating a challenging environment for the visiting Hornets.

Editorial Prediction

This fixture at The Den holds significant weight for both teams looking to find their footing in the Championship. Millwall’s historical dominance in this fixture at home, combined with their strong defensive displays and the psychological edge of playing in front of their fervent supporters, gives them a slight advantage.

Watford’s attacking potential, particularly through players like Luca Kjerrumgaard, is evident, but their defensive struggles, especially their inability to keep a clean sheet this season, are a cause for concern. The expected high-pressing style of Watford could create chances, but also leave them vulnerable to quick counter-attacks from Millwall.

Considering the tight nature of recent encounters and the early-season inconsistencies of both sides, a closely fought contest is anticipated. While some predict a draw, the home advantage and Millwall’s recent head-to-head record tip the scales in their favour.

Predicted Scoreline: Millwall 1 – 0 Watford

Justification: Millwall’s home form and their ability to grind out results, particularly against Watford, make a narrow victory plausible. The lack of prolific goalscorers on both sides, coupled with Watford’s porous defence and Millwall’s own inconsistent attack, suggests a low-scoring affair. Betting odds also reflect Millwall as slight favorites for the win (around 2.12), with a strong likelihood of under 2.5 goals. A “Both Teams to Score: No” outcome also aligns with these trends.

We might also expect a competitive midfield battle, possibly leading to some bookings. Keep an eye on Watford’s Hector Kyprianou, who has already picked up two yellow cards this season, as a potential candidate for a card.

OUR CHOICE

Millwall FC To Score at the odd of 1.30

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