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St Johnstone vs Ross County Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 11/10/2025

St Johnstone vs. Ross County: A Tayside Derby with High Stakes

As the Scottish Championship season gains momentum, McDiarmid Park in Perth is set to host a captivating encounter on Saturday, October 11, 2025, as league leaders St Johnstone face a resurgent Ross County. This Tayside derby holds significant weight for both sides: St Johnstone aims to solidify their position at the summit, while Ross County, buoyed by a recent vital victory, seeks to build much-needed momentum to escape the lower reaches of the table. The Saints enter this clash in formidable form, but their attacking prowess will be tested with key strikers away on international duty, adding an intriguing layer of tactical complexity to what promises to be a fiercely contested match. Can Ross County exploit these absences and continue their upward trajectory, or will St Johnstone’s strong home record and squad depth prevail?

Head-to-Head History

The rivalry between St Johnstone and Ross County has a rich history, with both teams having locked horns on numerous occasions. Across all competitions, these two sides have met 72 times. St Johnstone holds the upper hand, securing 28 victories, while Ross County has emerged victorious in 16 encounters. A substantial 28 matches between them have ended in a draw, highlighting the often-close nature of their contests. On average, their direct clashes have produced 2.40 goals per match.

Recent Meetings (Last 5)

  • 08/08/2025: Ross County 0 – 1 St Johnstone
  • 10/05/2025: St Johnstone 2 – 1 Ross County
  • 26/02/2025: St Johnstone 1 – 0 Ross County
  • 19/10/2024: St Johnstone 3 – 0 Ross County
  • 21/09/2024: Ross County 3 – 3 St Johnstone

St Johnstone has dominated recent fixtures, winning four of the last five meetings. The most recent match saw the Saints clinch a narrow 1-0 away victory in August 2025. Ross County’s last notable outcome was a high-scoring 3-3 draw at home in September 2024.

Current Form & Team News

St Johnstone

St Johnstone arrives at this derby in excellent shape, currently sitting atop the Championship table. Their last five competitive matches show an impressive run of form: W-W-W-W-D.

  • 04/10/2025: St Johnstone 0 – 0 Ayr United (D)
  • 27/09/2025: Queen’s Park – St Johnstone (W)
  • 23/09/2025: Airdrieonians – St Johnstone (W)
  • 19/09/2025: St Johnstone 2 – 1 Dunfermline Athletic (W)
  • 13/09/2025: Raith Rovers – St Johnstone (W)

The Saints’ manager, Simo Valakari, faces a significant challenge with two key strikers, Adama Sidibeh and Uche Ikpeazu, away on international duty for World Cup qualifiers in Africa. This means the team will need to rely on other attacking options. Joshua McPake is a player in stellar form, having been named the William Hill Championship Player of the Month for September, and is a strong attacking threat with 8 goals to his name this season. Defender Bozo Mikulic remains sidelined with a cruciate ligament injury, with an expected return in November 2025. Midfielder Jason Holt is also walking a disciplinary tightrope, being at risk of suspension with four yellow cards.

Ross County

Ross County’s recent form has been more inconsistent, but they come into this match with a crucial win under their belt. Their last five matches reflect a W-D-L-D-L record.

  • 04/10/2025: Ross County 2 – 0 Raith Rovers (W)
  • 27/09/2025: Greenock Morton 1 – 1 Ross County (D)
  • 20/09/2025: Ross County – Queen’s Park (L)
  • 13/09/2025: Ayr United – Ross County (D)
  • 06/09/2025: Ross County – Arbroath (L)

Their recent 2-0 victory over Raith Rovers was their first league win in seven months and could be a significant confidence booster. New loan signings Miller Thomson and Ryan Duncan, who joined on September 29, 2025, are already making an impact, with Thomson scoring on his debut against Raith Rovers. Striker Ronan Hale was not called up for international duty, making him available for selection. While specific injury updates for October 2025 were scarce, historical information noted Will Nightingale with a knee injury in October 2024, but he is presumed to have returned by now given the typical recovery timelines.

Tactical Preview

St Johnstone, playing at home and leading the league, will likely aim to control possession and dictate the tempo. Given the absence of key strikers Sidibeh and Ikpeazu, manager Simo Valakari might opt for a slightly adjusted attacking strategy, possibly relying more on creative midfielders and the in-form Joshua McPake to create chances. They are known for being defensively tight at home. Their average of 2.13 goals per match this season suggests they are potent, even with the current absences.

Ross County, under manager Tony Docherty, will be looking to build on their recent win. They might adopt a more cautious approach away from home, focusing on defensive solidity and hitting St Johnstone on the counter-attack, especially given their opponent’s missing firepower. The impact of recent loan additions Miller Thomson and Ryan Duncan, particularly Thomson’s goal-scoring debut, could provide a fresh impetus in attack. Ross County has struggled away from home, securing 5 draws out of 6 away matches this season. They average 1.71 goals per match this season.

The midfield battle will be crucial, with St Johnstone aiming to dominate centrally and Ross County looking to disrupt their rhythm and win turnovers. McDiarmid Park is known for its good playing surface. The weather forecast for Perth on October 11, 2025, predicts partly cloudy skies changing to sunny intervals by late morning, with a maximum temperature of 17°C and a minimum of 9°C. Wind speeds are expected to be around 19 km/h, which is breezy but unlikely to significantly impact play. There is a low chance of precipitation.

Editorial Prediction

This match presents a fascinating dynamic. St Johnstone’s impressive league form and strong home advantage make them the favorites. They have a 60% win rate at home. However, the absence of two primary goal-scorers in Sidibeh and Ikpeazu is a substantial blow that Ross County will undoubtedly try to exploit. Ross County’s recent win, their first in a while, could instill newfound confidence, making them a more dangerous opponent than their overall form suggests. While their away form is poor, drawing 5 out of 6 away matches, they tend to be resilient.

Considering St Johnstone’s robust home record and their ability to find goals even with rotation, combined with Ross County’s recent uplift in spirits but continued struggles away from home, we anticipate a tight affair. St Johnstone’s defense has been tight, and they have conceded an average of 0.88 xGA at home. We predict St Johnstone will ultimately edge out Ross County in a hard-fought contest.

Predicted Scoreline: St Johnstone 2 – 1 Ross County

Justification: St Johnstone’s strong home form and overall league position, coupled with the individual brilliance of players like Joshua McPake, should see them through. Ross County’s recent momentum will help them put up a fight and likely find the back of the net, possibly through Miller Thomson or Ronan Hale, but the Saints’ consistency at McDiarmid Park is likely to be the deciding factor. Betting odds would likely favor St Johnstone, though the absence of their strikers might slightly increase the odds for a draw or a narrow Ross County victory.

We anticipate at least one goal from Joshua McPake for St Johnstone. Given the derby nature of the match and the stakes involved, a yellow card count higher than average could also be expected.

OUR CHOICE

St Johnstone vs Ross County Over 1.5 at 1.30

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